Stern Review summary
30/10/2006 BBC The world has to act now on climate change or face devastating economic consequences, according to a report compiled by Sir Nicholas Stern for the UK government.Here are the key points of the review written by the former chief economist of the World Bank. TEMPERATURE Carbon emissions have already pushed up global temperatures by half a degree Celsius. If no action is taken on emissions, there is more than a 75% chance of global temperatures rising between two and three degrees Celsius over the next 50 years. There is a 50% chance that average global temperatures could rise by five degrees Celsius. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT Melting glaciers will increase flood risk. Crop yields will decline, particularly in Africa. Rising sea levels could leave 200 million people permanently displaced . Up to 40% of species could face extinction. There will be more examples of extreme weather patterns. ECONOMIC IMPACT Extreme weather could reduce global gross domestic product (GDP) by up to 1%. A two to three degrees Celsius rise in temperatures could reduce global economic output by 3%. If temperatures rise by five degrees Celsius, up to 10% of global output could be lost. The poorest countries would lose more than 10% of their output. In the worst case scenario global consumption per head would fall 20% To stabilise at manageable levels, emissions would need to stabilise in the next 20 years and fall between 1% and 3% after that. This would cost 1% of GDP OPTIONS FOR CHANGE Reduce consumer demand for heavily polluting goods and services/
Make global energy supply more efficient/ Act on non-energy emissions – preventing further deforestation would go a long way towards alleviating this source of carbon emissions/ Promote cleaner energy and transport technology, with non-fossil fuels accounting for 60% of energy output by 2050. GOVERNMENT RESPONSE Create a global market for carbon pricing/ Extend the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EETS) globally, bringing in countries such as the US, India and China/ Set new target for EETS to reduce carbon emissions by 30% by 2020 and 60% by 2050/ Pass a bill to enshrine carbon reduction targets and create a new independent body to monitor progress/ Create a new commission to spearhead British company investment in green technology, with the aim of creating 100,000 new jobs/ Former US vice-president Al Gore will advise the government on the issue/ Work with the World Bank and other financial institutions to create a $20bn fund to help poor countries adjust to climate change challenges/ Work with Brazil, Papua New Guinea and Costa Rica to promote sustainable forestry and prevent deforestation.