Resources for a sustainable future

7/11/2006  BBC The world could be dependent on “dirty, insecure and expensive” energy by 2030, an influential report has warned. Current trends showed that demand for power was set to grow by 53% by 2030, the International Energy Agency said.  But if governments deliver on promises to push cleaner and more efficient supplies, growth in demand could be restrained by about 10%, it suggests. Greater use of nuclear power could be a “valuable option” to cut imports and curb CO2 emissions, the study added. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2006 also echoed the findings of a recent UK report that said the benefits of cutting emissions outweighed the costs of combatting climate change. “WEO 2006 reveals that the energy future we are facing today, based on projections of current trends, is dirty, insecure and expensive,” said Claude Mandil, executive director of the IEA. “But it also shows how new government policies can create an alternative energy future which is clean, clever and competitive,” he added. The document considered two scenarios: Business as usual - Referred to in the report as the “reference scenario”, this projects how the globe’s energy mix would look in 2030 if current trends were followed 1)Alternative policy scenario - projects how the energy mix would appear in 2030 if the package of policies and measures being considered by governments were adopted 2)Under the business as usual scenario, the document warned that the demand for fossil fuels, and the related carbon emissions, would continue to grow through to 2030, if there was no action from the world’s politicians. Overall, the WEO says primary energy demand would grow by about 53%, with fossil fuels accounting for 83% of the increase between 2004 and 2030. But it said that the alternative policy scenario projected that the growth in demand for energy could be cut by 10% by 2030 – the equivalent to China’s current total energy consumption. It also said this scenario would deliver 16% less carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions than the business as usual scenario, the same as the current total emissions from the US and Canada combined.