Amid the rows, one truth: the world is still warming – Comment by Fred Pearce
5/2/2010 Guardian “None of the 1,073 emails upsets the 200-year-old science behind the greenhouse effect” The emails stolen from the University of East Anglia in November have cast an uncomfortable light on the behind-thescenes actions of some of the world’s most senior and respected climate scientists. The affair raises serious questions about access to data and the way scientific peer review can be used to stifle dissent.
But is climate change science fundamentally flawed by the “climategate” revelations? Absolutely not. Nothing uncovered in the emails destroys the argument that humans are warming the planet. None of the 1,073 emails plus 3,587 files containing documents, raw data and computer code upsets the 200-year-old science behind the “greenhouse effect” of gases such as carbon dioxide, which traps solar heat and warms the atmospheres
Nothing changes the fact that carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere thanks to human emissions from burning carbon-based fuels such as coal and oil. Nor the calculations by physicists that for every square metre of the Earth’s surface, 1.6 watts more energy enters the atmosphere than leaves it.
And we know the world is warming as a result. Thousands of thermometers in areas remote from any conceivable local urban influences tell us that. The oceans are warming too. The great majority of
the world’s glaciers are retreating, Arctic sea ice is disappearing, sea levels are rising ever faster, trees are climbing up hillsides and permafrost is melting.
These are not statistical artefacts or the result of scientists cherry-picking data. Equally, many of the most widely publicised claims from sceptics about the emails are demonstrably unfounded. There is no conspiracy to “hide the decline” in temperatures. Nor that a lack of warming in the data is a “travesty” – still less of attempts to fix the data.
But, within the narrower confines of assembling a reliable history of global temperature, the emails have done significant damage to the credibility of scientists, They show that in their desire to give the world a clear message that humans are heating the planet, a group of scientists cut corners and played down uncertainties in their calculations.
Their opponents charge that they then covered their tracks by being secretive with data and suppressing dissent.
Taken with the recent revelations about shortcomings in reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this suggests a wider problem of scientific sloppiness, but not of outright fraud. Many scientists believe their community has to own up to that, and put its house in order.
Part of the problem is secrecy in has been trying to make peace between her colleagues and the sceptics, says the various data sets connected to the famous “hockey stick” temperature graph and Phil Jones’s thermometer data sets “stand out as lacking transparency”
Science is too much of a closed shop, she says, Outsiders need to be let into the ivory towers for the good of science itself. “Einstein didn’t start his career at Princeton, but rather at a post office.” Bring on the bloggers. Maybe there’s an Einstein among them.
The doors of labs are being opened whether scientists like it or not. The Information Commissioner’s office last week released a statement saying that the University of East Anglia had “not dealt with [Fol requests] as they should have been under the legislation”.
There is evidence in the emails that some at the Climatic Research Unit wanted to delete files rather than hand them over – though it is not clear if there were any deliberate deletions.
Probably no one anticipated that a law intended to unwrap state secrets might end up freeing data from scientists’ computers. But the science community now urgently needs to figure out how to respond to this altered landscape.
The need to open up science is made all the greater by the question raised in the emails about the “gold standard”, the peer review system. In many fields of research, peer review creates serious conflicts of interest in which, as the emails have revealed, senior research- ers can act in a way that could have the effect of blackballing the research papers of their critics. The dangers are all the greater when, again as the emails show, the conventions of anonymity in peer review are not rigorously upheld.
Finally, “climategate” raises questions about the IPCC report-writing process, in which many of the emailers have been involved. Governments set up the IPCC 20 years ago to get scientists to speak with one voice on climate change, But often there is no Blear consensus. Scientists are trained to disagree. The tensions created by the pressure to agree are clear in dozens of the emails,
One of Jones’s UEA colleagues, the climatologist Mike Hulme, says: “Climate scientists will have to work harder to earn the warranted trust of the public – and maybe that is no bad thing.”
While science gets its house in order, we need some perspective. In the midst of a cold winter it may be hard to convince ourselves, but the world is still warming. Humanity is still to blame. And we still, urgently, need to do something about it.
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