World Population Peak - data from Fred Pearce book PeopleQuake

World Population will soon Peak then decline - data from Fred Pearce book PeopleQuake (details in BOOK LIST).Data from Fred Pearce’s new book show that World Population should peak and decline in a few decades.

World Population will continue to rise for a few decades but the falling fertility rates will then cause the peak and the downturn.

10,000 years ago the world population was 10 million. By 1800 it reached 1 billion. By 1927 2 billion.  By 1960 3 billion.

By 1975 4 billion. By 1987 5 billion. By 1999 6 billion. Predictions: by 2013 7 billion. By 2033 8 billion or less. By 2100 down perhaps 5 billion.

Years to add 1 billion. 10,000/ 130/ 33/ 15/ 12/ 12/ then increasing - predicted from existing fertility 14. After that peaking and declining rapidly.


World Fertility Peaked in the 1950’s when it was between 5 and 6 children per woman. Now it is down to 2.6. 

To maintain the same population size requires approx 2.1 (not 2.0 because of child deaths).

Half the women of the world are now having 2 or less children and almost everywhere fertility is falling sharply.

This is not the result of state intervention or wealth creation - it is women’s choices.

This means an ageing world population will emerge speeding the decline.


Europe’s population is at the peak now and will fall after 600 years of continual growth

30 years ago 23 European countries had fertility rates above replacement, now none have.

Go to: BOOK LIST look up Pearce, Fred (alphabetically) PeopleQuake published 2010.